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Projections of wind energy resources in the Caribbean for the 21st century

Costoya, X. ; deCastro, M. ; Santos, F. ; Sousa, M.C. ; Gómez-Gesteira, M.

Energy (Oxford), 2019-07, Vol.178, p.356-367 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Oxford: Elsevier Ltd

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  • Título:
    Projections of wind energy resources in the Caribbean for the 21st century
  • Autor: Costoya, X. ; deCastro, M. ; Santos, F. ; Sousa, M.C. ; Gómez-Gesteira, M.
  • Assuntos: Alternative energy sources ; Basins ; Caribbean ; Climate change ; Climate models ; CORDEX ; Delphi method ; Dry season ; Energy resources ; Energy sources ; Environmental impact ; Environmental risk ; Ocean temperature ; Offshore operations ; Rainy season ; Renewable energy ; Risk analysis ; Risk factors ; Temperature gradients ; Wind farms ; Wind power
  • É parte de: Energy (Oxford), 2019-07, Vol.178, p.356-367
  • Descrição: The Caribbean has suitable conditions for a significant wind energy development, which makes a good planning for the future renewable energy mix essential. The impact of climate change on Caribbean wind power has been analyzed by means of an ensemble of CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) under the RCP8.5 warming scenario. The offshore wind energy resource was classified for the historical period and for the future considering wind energy factors, environmental risk factors and cost factors whose weights were estimated by a Delphi method. Future projections show a maximum annual wind increase, ∼0.4 ms−1 (8%), in most of the Caribbean, except in the Yucatán Basin. This increment occurs mainly during the wet season, ∼0.5 ms−1 (∼10%), associated with changes in the extension of the North Atlantic Subtropical High, which will strengthen the Caribbean low-level jet. Additionally, the moderate wind increase, ∼0.2 ms−1 (∼4%), projected during the dry season is restricted to the southeastern coast and it is associated with an increment in the land-ocean temperature difference (∼1 °C), which will intensify local easterly winds. The low-level jet region was classified as the richest wind energy resource in the Caribbean for the future with a larger extension compared to the historical period. •Influence of climate change on future offshore wind power in the Caribbean.•Future projections by means of an ensemble of RCM from the CORDEX under the RCP8.5•Wind increases in most (only in southeastern coast) of Caribbean in wet (dry) season.•Wind increase in the wet season associated to changes in the extension of the NASH.•Wind increase in dry season due to an increase in land-ocean temperature gradient.
  • Editor: Oxford: Elsevier Ltd
  • Idioma: Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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