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impact of atmospheric initialisation on seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific SST

Hudson, Debra ; Alves, Oscar ; Hendon, Harry H ; Wang, Guomin

Climate dynamics, 2011-03, Vol.36 (5-6), p.1155-1171 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag

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  • Título:
    impact of atmospheric initialisation on seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific SST
  • Autor: Hudson, Debra ; Alves, Oscar ; Hendon, Harry H ; Wang, Guomin
  • Assuntos: Atmosphere ; Climatology ; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change ; data collection ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Earth, ocean, space ; Exact sciences and technology ; External geophysics ; Geophysics. Techniques, methods, instrumentation and models ; Geophysics/Geodesy ; Marine ; Meteorology ; Oceanography ; prediction ; Rainforests ; Seasons ; surface temperature
  • É parte de: Climate dynamics, 2011-03, Vol.36 (5-6), p.1155-1171
  • Notas: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0763-9
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  • Descrição: The impact of realistic atmospheric initialisation on the seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is explored with the Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) dynamical seasonal forecast system. Previous versions of POAMA used data from an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style simulation to initialise the atmosphere for the hindcast simulations. The initial conditions for the hindcasts did not, therefore, capture the true intra-seasonal atmospheric state. The most recent version of POAMA has a new Atmosphere and Land Initialisation scheme (ALI), which captures the observed intra-seasonal atmospheric state. We present the ALI scheme and then compare the forecast skill of two hindcast datasets, one with AMIP-type initialisation and one with realistic initial conditions from ALI, focussing on the prediction of El Niño. For eastern Pacific (Niño3) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), both experiments beat persistence and have useful SSTA prediction skill (anomaly correlations above 0.6) at all lead times (forecasts are 9 months duration). However, the experiment with realistic atmospheric initial conditions from ALI is an improvement over the AMIP-type initialisation experiment out to about 6 months lead time. The improvements in skill are related to improved initial atmospheric anomalies rather than an improved initial mean state (the forecast drift is worse in the ALI hindcast dataset). Since we are dealing with a coupled system, initial atmospheric errors (or differences between experiments) are amplified though coupled processes which can then lead to long lasting errors (or differences).
  • Editor: Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag
  • Idioma: Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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