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Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields

Tack, Jesse ; Barkley, Andrew ; Nalley, Lawton Lanier

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 02 June 2015, Vol.112(22), pp.6931-6 [Periódico revisado por pares]

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  • Título:
    Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields
  • Autor: Tack, Jesse ; Barkley, Andrew ; Nalley, Lawton Lanier
  • Assuntos: Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Wheat ; Yield ; Global Warming ; Agriculture -- Statistics & Numerical Data ; Triticum -- Growth & Development
  • É parte de: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 02 June 2015, Vol.112(22), pp.6931-6
  • Descrição: Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985-2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September-May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates...
  • Idioma: Inglês

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