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Bayesian estimation of directional wave spectrum using vessel movements and wave-probes.

Souza, Felipe Lopes De

Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP; Universidade de São Paulo; Escola Politécnica 2019-05-29

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  • Título:
    Bayesian estimation of directional wave spectrum using vessel movements and wave-probes.
  • Autor: Souza, Felipe Lopes De
  • Orientador: Tannuri, Eduardo Aoun
  • Assuntos: Wave-Probe; Espectros; Estimação Bayesiana; Navios; Ondas; Sistemas Dinâmicos; Posicionamento Ótimo De Sensores; Sensor; Wave-Probe; Optimum Sensor Placement; Directional Spectrum; Bayesian Estimation
  • Notas: Tese (Doutorado)
  • Notas Locais: Programa Engenharia Mecânica
  • Descrição: The exploration of oil and natural gas in offshore fields has motivated advanced researches about the environmental forces in the oceans. The waves, in particular, have been measured using different techniques, as meteorological buoys, with recent works proposing motion-based estimations procedures using the vessel, or a floating facility, in analogy with the buoys, as a wave sensor. Even though this approach has a number of benefits, the vessels, as dynamic systems, have a cut-off frequency that degrades the estimation of high-frequency waves, which are important for non-linear drift effects predictions. In order to solve this problem, it is proposed the incorporation of wave-probes - gauges used to measure the wave elevation in a point - installed on the hull of the vessel, based on literature suggestions and simple analytical arguments, using the Bayesian statistics as the standing point of a more complete estimation algorithm. In order to incorporate the measurements of the wave-probes, an extended linear model is proposed, showing that only corrections for the vertical motions of the vessel are necessary. The ideal installation positions of the wave-probes are defined using as base the utility Bayesian optimal design of experiments, which is shown to guarantee an upper bound for other optimal criteria, with the \'Elbow Criterion\" defining the optimal number of sensors to be employed. Based on the previous solutions, other proposals are made: a heuristic to solve the optimal sensor placement problem and an optimal prior exploring the probabilistic nature of the algorithm. Finally, all the proposals are tested numerically and experimentally, with a vessel model in a towing tank, concluding that the addition of the wave-probes is able to improve not only the estimation of high-frequency waves, but also the estimation over a large range of frequencies. For unimodal seas with intermediate draft, the addition of just one wave-probe reaches approximately a 37%-55% improvement in the energy parameter estimations - HS and TP; the addition of two or more probes reaches approximately a 62%-65% improvement in the same parameters estimations; the addition of four probes achieved the best cost benefit for mean direction estimation; and the addition of six probes is shown to be the recommendation for the best high-order directional estimation in the entire range of the spectrum.
  • DOI: 10.11606/T.3.2019.tde-22082019-133639
  • Editor: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP; Universidade de São Paulo; Escola Politécnica
  • Data de publicação: 2019-05-29
  • Formato: Adobe PDF
  • Idioma: Inglês

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