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Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

Morice, Colin P. ; Kennedy, John J. ; Rayner, Nick A. ; Jones, Phil D.

Journal of Geophysical Research, 2012-04, Vol.117 (D8), p.n/a [Periódico revisado por pares]

Washington, DC: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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  • Título:
    Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set
  • Autor: Morice, Colin P. ; Kennedy, John J. ; Rayner, Nick A. ; Jones, Phil D.
  • Assuntos: Atmospheric sciences ; climate ; Climate change ; Climate science ; Earth ; Earth sciences ; Earth, ocean, space ; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ; Exact sciences and technology ; historical temperature ; near surface temperature ; observational ensemble ; Regions
  • É parte de: Journal of Geophysical Research, 2012-04, Vol.117 (D8), p.n/a
  • Notas: ark:/67375/WNG-M5SKWQP5-M
    ArticleID:2011JD017187
    istex:A5E631663C4ACF264B8C37143190CD77BF37690F
    DOE/SC0005689-Paper-13
    USDOE
    SC0005689
  • Descrição: Recent developments in observational near‐surface air temperature and sea‐surface temperature analyses are combined to produce HadCRUT4, a new data set of global and regional temperature evolution from 1850 to the present. This includes the addition of newly digitized measurement data, both over land and sea, new sea‐surface temperature bias adjustments and a more comprehensive error model for describing uncertainties in sea‐surface temperature measurements. An ensemble approach has been adopted to better describe complex temporal and spatial interdependencies of measurement and bias uncertainties and to allow these correlated uncertainties to be taken into account in studies that are based upon HadCRUT4. Climate diagnostics computed from the gridded data set broadly agree with those of other global near‐surface temperature analyses. Fitted linear trends in temperature anomalies are approximately 0.07°C/decade from 1901 to 2010 and 0.17°C/decade from 1979 to 2010 globally. Northern/southern hemispheric trends are 0.08/0.07°C/decade over 1901 to 2010 and 0.24/0.10°C/decade over 1979 to 2010. Linear trends in other prominent near‐surface temperature analyses agree well with the range of trends computed from the HadCRUT4 ensemble members. Key Points Updated version of a global temperature data set An ensemble approach is adopted to describe correlated uncertainties Improved estimates of uncertainty in global and regional temperature timeseries
  • Editor: Washington, DC: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Idioma: Inglês
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