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Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices

Pástor, Ľuboš ; Veronesi, Pietro

The American economic review, 2009-09, Vol.99 (4), p.1451-1483 [Periódico revisado por pares]

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Título:
Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices
Autor: Pástor, Ľuboš ; Veronesi, Pietro
Assuntos: Applied economics ; Biotechnology ; Discount rates ; Economic bubbles ; Economic impact analysis ; Economic modeling ; Economic models ; Economic uncertainty ; Emerging technology ; Equilibrium ; General economic equilibrium ; Innovation diffusion ; Internet ; New technology ; Prices ; Productivity ; Stock exchanges ; Stock prices ; Studies ; Technological change ; Technological revolutions ; Uncertainty ; Volatility
É parte de: The American economic review, 2009-09, Vol.99 (4), p.1451-1483
Notas: ObjectType-Article-2
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-1
content type line 23
Descrição: We develop a general equilibrium model in which stock prices of innovative firms exhibit "bubbles" during technological revolutions. In the model, the average productivity of a new technology is uncertain and subject to learning. During technological revolutions, the nature of this uncertainty changes from idiosyncratic to systematic. The resulting bubbles in stock prices are observable ex post but unpredictable ex ante, and they are most pronounced for technologies characterized by high uncertainty and fast adoption. We find empirical support for the model's predictions in 1830-1861 and 1992-2005 when the railroad and Internet technologies spread in the United States.
Editor: Nashville: American Economic Association
Idioma: Inglês

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