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Spatial Patterns of Storm‐Induced Landslides and Their Relation to Rainfall Anomaly Maps

Marc, Odin ; Gosset, Marielle ; Saito, Hitoshi ; Uchida, Taro ; Malet, Jean‐Philippe

Geophysical research letters, 2019-10, Vol.46 (20), p.11167-11177 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Washington: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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  • Título:
    Spatial Patterns of Storm‐Induced Landslides and Their Relation to Rainfall Anomaly Maps
  • Autor: Marc, Odin ; Gosset, Marielle ; Saito, Hitoshi ; Uchida, Taro ; Malet, Jean‐Philippe
  • Assuntos: Anomalies ; Archives & records ; Computation ; Debris‐flow ; Earth Sciences ; Extreme climatology ; Extreme weather ; Geophysics ; Heavy rainfall ; Hurricanes ; Hydrology ; Landscape ; Landslide ; Landslides ; Landslides & mudslides ; Mechanical properties ; Radar ; Radar data ; Radar networks ; Rain ; Rainfall ; Rainfall amount ; Rainfall anomalies ; Rainfall anomaly ; Rainfall data ; Rainfall forecasting ; Rainfall frequency ; Rocks ; Rock‐type ; Sciences of the Universe ; Soil ; Soil strength ; Stability ; Storms ; Typhoon ; Typhoons ; Weather forecasting
  • É parte de: Geophysical research letters, 2019-10, Vol.46 (20), p.11167-11177
  • Descrição: Storm‐induced landslides are a common hazard, but the link between their spatial pattern and rainfall properties is poorly understood, mostly because hillslope stability is modulated by under‐constrained, spatially variable topographic, hydrological, and mechanical properties. Here, we use a long‐term rainfall data set from the Japanese radar network to discuss why the landslide pattern caused by a major typhoon poorly correlates with the event rainfall but agrees with the event rainfall normalized by the 10‐year return period rainfall amount, that is, a rainfall anomaly. This may be explained if the variability in hillslope properties has coevolved with the recent climate and can be accounted for with such normalization. Further, rock types seem to respond to rainfall anomalies at various timescales, favoring specific landslide geometries, and suggesting various hydrological properties in these zones. The computation of rainfall anomalies for multiple timescales may pave the way toward operational landslide forecasts in case of large storms. Plain Language Summary Landslides caused by heavy rainfall frequently cause substantial loss of life and property. However, the location of landslides across a landscape depends on both the rainfall amount and various local properties of the landscape (e.g., soil thickness and strength) that are difficult to measure. Here, we use 26 years of weather‐radar measurements to show that the landslides caused by a large typhoon in Japan are poorly explained by the rainfall amount during the typhoon but much better by the rainfall anomaly, which is the amount of rainfall normalized by the rainfall amount occurring during extreme rainfall. We also find that landsliding seems driven by short, intense bursts of rainfall in regions underlain by some rock types while elsewhere rainfall accumulated over 2 days matters most. To replace total rainfall by rainfall anomaly and to consider rainfall accumulated over various time periods may fundamentally change landslide susceptibility scenarios and may allow quantitative forecasts of landslide patterns caused by large storms, based on weather forecasts and rainfall archives. Key Points Patterns of storm‐induced landslides tracks the rainfall anomaly (relative to a 10‐year‐return rainfall) better than absolute rainfall Quantitative prediction of the spatial pattern of storm‐induced landsliding is primarily achieved with slope and rainfall anomaly maps Rock types with different hydrological properties may modulate the temporal scale over which rainfall accumulation cause landsliding
  • Editor: Washington: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Idioma: Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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