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Subnational implications from climate and air pollution policies in India’s electricity sector

Sengupta, Shayak ; Adams, Peter J. ; Deetjen, Thomas A. ; Kamboj, Puneet ; D’Souza, Swati ; Tongia, Rahul ; Azevedo, Inês M. L.

Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 2022-11, Vol.378 (6620), p.eabh1484-eabh1484 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Washington: The American Association for the Advancement of Science

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  • Título:
    Subnational implications from climate and air pollution policies in India’s electricity sector
  • Autor: Sengupta, Shayak ; Adams, Peter J. ; Deetjen, Thomas A. ; Kamboj, Puneet ; D’Souza, Swati ; Tongia, Rahul ; Azevedo, Inês M. L.
  • Assuntos: Air pollution ; Carbon dioxide ; Carbon dioxide emissions ; Climate policy ; Coal ; Coal mines ; Coal mining ; Coal-fired power plants ; Consumption ; Cost analysis ; Costs ; Electric industries ; Electric power demand ; Electric power generation ; Electricity ; Electricity consumption ; Electricity generation ; Emission analysis ; Emissions ; Emissions control ; Energy ; Energy policy ; Energy transition ; Environmental policy ; Fuels ; Greenhouse effect ; Greenhouse gases ; Heterogeneity ; Hydroelectric power ; Industrial plant emissions ; Jurisdiction ; Net zero ; Pollutants ; Pollution ; Power plants ; Public policy ; Reduced order models ; Renewable energy ; Renewable resources ; Spatial heterogeneity ; Sulfur ; Sulfur dioxide ; Taxation
  • É parte de: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 2022-11, Vol.378 (6620), p.eabh1484-eabh1484
  • Notas: ObjectType-Article-1
    SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
    ObjectType-Feature-2
    content type line 23
  • Descrição: Emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in India are important contributors to climate change and health damages. This study estimates current emissions from India’s electricity sector and simulates the state-level implications of climate change and air pollution policies. We find that (i) a carbon tax results in little short-term emissions reductions because there is not enough dispatchable lower emission spare capacity to substitute coal; (ii) moving toward regional dispatch markets rather than state-level dispatch decisions will not lead to emissions reductions; (iii) policies that have modest emissions effects at the national level nonetheless have disparate state-level emissions impacts; and (iv) pricing or incentive mechanisms tied to production or consumption will result in markedly different costs to states. Powering up India is the world’s third largest producer of carbon dioxide even though its per capita emissions are very low. As India’s population becomes more affluent and consumes more energy, their power sector, now heavily reliant on coal, will grow. Therefore, greenhouse gas emissions and other types of air pollution likely will also grow unless large changes are made to the electricity production sector. Sengupta et al . present a highly resolved model of Indian power generation and demand that assesses the emission impacts of various power sector policy interventions in India (see the Perspective by Deshmukh and Chatterjee). This analysis provides valuable guidance about the development of the power sector and the costs associated with different development pathways. —HJS India should consider climate change and air pollution impacts as it plans its future electricity infrastructure. INTRODUCTION India is the world’s third-largest economy and power producer, with growing electricity demand from low–per capita electricity consumption. Despite the growth of renewable energy, coal-heavy electricity generation means that greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions from the power sector are, and will remain, an important focus of public policies in India. Each state in India largely schedules and dispatches its own power. Renewable electricity capacity is concentrated mostly in wealthier states in southern and western India. Meanwhile, hydroelectric power is located predominantly in Himalayan northern and northeastern India. Coal capacity is found throughout the country, but the cheapest coal plants are located near coal mines in a handful of poorer, eastern states. Electricity generation mixes vary by state, and both the central and state governments share jurisdiction over the power sector. RATIONALE A clear understanding of the emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants from the Indian grid at a subnational scale has not existed before now. No study has yet quantified the expected spatial heterogeneity arising from the current federal Indian power sector—i.e., which states are responsible for emissions based on the electricity that they generate or consume. We develop and present a reduced-order dispatch model of Indian power generation to assess CO 2 and SO 2 emission effects of policy interventions. The model simulates which power plants generate electricity to meet demand by minimizing short-term costs from power contracts in India. We focus on short-term effects for the current Indian grid and analyze how policies could induce spatial differences in emissions and costs between states in India. RESULTS We find that average nationwide CO 2 and SO 2 emissions intensities for electricity in India fail to capture the considerable heterogeneity between states. Electricity production and consumption and associated emissions between Indian states show orders-of-magnitude differences tied to population, akin to the differences between different countries around the world. A carbon tax results in little short-term emissions reductions because there is not enough dispatchable lower emission spare capacity to substitute coal. Moreover, it would disproportionately increase costs to poorer, coal-heavy eastern states. The implementation of sulfur controls will likely result in large reductions of SO 2 emissions, with the important outcome of reducing the current premature mortality associated with air pollution in India. Our simulations suggest that dispatching plants at the regional level rather than at the state level would lead to a small increase in both SO 2 and CO 2 emissions, with heterogeneous cost effects on states. Regionally coordinated dispatch would also impose changes in the spatial patterns of SO 2 and CO 2 emissions by shifting generation and emissions from distant plants to cheaper plants closer to eastern coal-mining regions. CONCLUSION Our analysis shows that policies that have modest or negligible emissions impacts at the aggregate, national level nonetheless have disparate state-level spatial emissions and cost effects. Electricity decarbonization and emissions reductions efforts in India must show an appreciation for the scale of the challenge. This will be increasingly relevant because future international climate policy, to facilitate decarbonization in India, must account for this subnational variability instead of treating all of India uniformly. Consequently, the differences we quantify have implications for India’s decarbonization efforts as it aims to increase renewable energy by 2030, meet net-zero emissions by 2070, and ensure a just energy transition for coal-dependent states in eastern India. Flow of CO 2 emissions from electricity generated and consumed in India. States on the left emit CO 2 when generating electricity for states on the right. Large states, such as Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, or Tamil Nadu, emit for electricity consumed within their borders. However, coal-mining states, like Chhattisgarh or Odisha, export much power and associated emissions for consumption outside their borders.
  • Editor: Washington: The American Association for the Advancement of Science
  • Idioma: Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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