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Sensitivity analysis on the declining population in Japan: Effects of prefecture-specific fertility and interregional migration

Oizumi, Ryo ; Inaba, Hisashi ; Takada, Takenori ; Enatsu, Youichi ; Kinjo, Kensaku Fujiwara, Masami

PloS one, 2022-09, Vol.17 (9), p.e0273817-e0273817 [Periódico revisado por pares]

San Francisco: Public Library of Science

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Título:
Sensitivity analysis on the declining population in Japan: Effects of prefecture-specific fertility and interregional migration
Autor: Oizumi, Ryo ; Inaba, Hisashi ; Takada, Takenori ; Enatsu, Youichi ; Kinjo, Kensaku
Fujiwara, Masami
Assuntos: Age ; Age composition ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Earth Sciences ; Ecology ; Eigen values ; Eigenvalues ; Evaluation ; Fertility ; Growth rate ; Mathematical analysis ; Matrices (mathematics) ; Migration ; Modelling ; Numerical analysis ; Parameter estimation ; People and Places ; Physical Sciences ; Population decline ; Population growth ; Regional development ; Robustness (mathematics) ; Sensitivity analysis ; Social Sciences ; Statistics ; Trends ; Urban areas ; Urban populations
É parte de: PloS one, 2022-09, Vol.17 (9), p.e0273817-e0273817
Notas: ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Descrição: Japan has been facing a population decline since 2010 due to low birth rates, interregional migration, and regional traits. In this study, we modeled the demographic dynamics of Japan using a transition matrix model. Then, from the mathematical structure of the model, we quantitatively evaluated the domestic factors of population decline. To achieve this, we constructed a multi-regional Leslie matrix model and developed a method for representing the reproductive value and stable age distribution using matrix entries. Our method enabled us to interpret the mathematical indices using the genealogies of the migration history of individuals and their ancestors. Furthermore, by combining our method with sensitivity analysis, we analyzed the effect of region-specific fertility rates and interregional migration rates on the population decline in Japan. We found that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to the migration rate from urban areas with large populations to prefectures with high fertility rates was greatest for people aged under 30. In addition, compared to other areas, the fertility rates of urban areas exhibited higher sensitivity for people aged over 30. Because this feature is robust in comparison with those in 2010 and 2015, it can be said to be a unique structure in Japan in recent years. We also established a method to represent the reproductive value and stable age distribution in an irreducible non-negative matrix population model by using the matrix entries. Furthermore, we show the effects of fertility and migration rates numerically in urban and non-urban areas on the population growth rates for each age group in a society with a declining population.
Editor: San Francisco: Public Library of Science
Idioma: Inglês

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Sensitivity analysis on the declining population in Japan: Effects of prefecture-specific fertility and interregional migration

Oizumi, Ryo ; Inaba, Hisashi ; Takada, Takenori ; Enatsu, Youichi ; Kinjo, Kensaku Fujiwara, Masami

San Francisco: Public Library of Science

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