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Climate change and temperature rise: Implications on food- and water-borne diseases

El-Fadel, Mutasem ; Ghanimeh, Sophia ; Maroun, Rania ; Alameddine, Ibrahim

The Science of the total environment, 2012-10, Vol.437, p.15-21 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Kidlington: Elsevier B.V

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Título:
Climate change and temperature rise: Implications on food- and water-borne diseases
Autor: El-Fadel, Mutasem ; Ghanimeh, Sophia ; Maroun, Rania ; Alameddine, Ibrahim
Assuntos: Adaptation ; Biological and medical sciences ; Climate change ; Computer simulation ; Computer Simulation - statistics & numerical data ; Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data ; Drinking Water - microbiology ; Economics ; Epidemiology. Vaccinations ; Evolution ; Female ; Food- and water-borne diseases ; Foodborne Diseases - epidemiology ; Fossil fuels ; General aspects ; Global Warming - statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Illnesses ; Incidence ; Infectious diseases ; Lebanon ; Male ; Medical sciences ; Models, Biological ; Morbidity ; Public health ; Thresholds ; Water Microbiology
É parte de: The Science of the total environment, 2012-10, Vol.437, p.15-21
Notas: ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
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Descrição: This study attempts to quantify climate-induced increases in morbidity rates associated with food- and water-borne illnesses in the context of an urban coastal city, taking Beirut-Lebanon as a study area. A Poisson generalized linear model was developed to assess the impacts of temperature on the morbidity rate. The model was used with four climatic scenarios to simulate a broad spectrum of driving forces and potential social, economic and technologic evolutions. The correlation established in this study exhibits a decrease in the number of illnesses with increasing temperature until reaching a threshold of 19.2°C, beyond which the number of morbidity cases increases with temperature. By 2050, the results show a substantial increase in food- and water-borne related morbidity of 16 to 28% that can reach up to 42% by the end of the century under A1FI (fossil fuel intensive development) or can be reversed to ~0% under B1 (lowest emissions trajectory), highlighting the need for early mitigation and adaptation measures. ► Prediction of climate-induced increase in food- and water-borne morbidity in a semi-arid Eastern Mediterranean coastal city. ► Number of disease cases increases with temperature beyond a threshold of 19.2°C. ► Expected increase in morbidity of 16 to 28% by year 2050. ► Up to 42% increase in morbidity anticipated by the end of the century.
Editor: Kidlington: Elsevier B.V
Idioma: Inglês

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Climate change and temperature rise: Implications on food- and water-borne diseases

El-Fadel, Mutasem ; Ghanimeh, Sophia ; Maroun, Rania ; Alameddine, Ibrahim

Kidlington: Elsevier B.V

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