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Predictability of East Asian summer monsoon in seasonal climate forecast models

Liu, Yunyun ; Ke, Zongjian ; Ding, Yihui

International journal of climatology, 2019-12, Vol.39 (15), p.5688-5701 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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  • Título:
    Predictability of East Asian summer monsoon in seasonal climate forecast models
  • Autor: Liu, Yunyun ; Ke, Zongjian ; Ding, Yihui
  • Assuntos: Annual variations ; Anomalies ; Circulation indexes ; Climate ; Climate models ; Climatology ; Correlation ; Dependence ; Dipoles ; East Asian monsoon ; East Asian summer monsoon ; El Nino ; El Nino phenomena ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation event ; Interannual variability ; Monsoon circulation ; Monsoon climates ; Monsoon forecasting ; Monsoons ; Predictability ; Predictions ; Rain ; Rainfall ; Rainfall forecasting ; Rainfall patterns ; Rainfall variability ; Sea surface ; Sea surface temperature ; seasonal climate forecast models ; Southern Oscillation ; Spatial variations ; Summer ; Summer climates ; Summer monsoon ; Summer rainfall ; Surface temperature ; western Pacific subtropical high ; Wind
  • É parte de: International journal of climatology, 2019-12, Vol.39 (15), p.5688-5701
  • Notas: Funding information
    National Key R&D Program of China, Grant/Award Number: 2018YFC1505806; Public Welfare Industry (Meteorological) Research Projects, Grant/Award Number: GYHY201306024
  • Descrição: The prediction skill and source of the predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system are examined in this work based on four state‐of‐the‐art seasonal climate forecast models including BCC_CSM1.1, ECMWF_SYS4, NCEP_CFS2 and TCC_CPS2. The prediction of the climatology and interannual EASM pattern and the impact on the prediction are further investigated. It is noted that the four models have some skill in predicting summer rainfall in the East Asia, however, the skill is low on average and also largely regional dependence. The interannual variation of EASM measured by monsoon circulation index is well reproduced, implying that the broad‐scale feature/pattern of EASM has higher predictability than the detailed spatial variation of EASM rainfall. The possible sources of predictability of the interannual variability of EASM are associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the north Indian Ocean (NIO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The correlation pattern of rainfall with the NIO SST is characterized by a tripole pattern from south to north of East Asia, which is different from the correlation distribution of the southern‐northern dipole with ENSO, suggesting that NIO SST may exert influence on the EASM independently. The major biases in climatology of EASM in the models are the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and weak monsoonal southerly over the coast of East Asia, which leads to the prediction bias of the Meiyu/Baiu/Changma (MBC) rainfall belt. The prediction of the interannual EASM pattern presents two deficiencies: too weak rainfall variability and northward shift of the dipole rainfall pattern (opposite variation between MBC and the northwestern Pacific), that may be caused by the biases of WPSH in the models. The broad‐scale feature of EASM has higher predictability than the detailed spatial variation of EASM rainfall in the seasonal climate forecast models, while the possible predictability sources of NIO SST may exert influence on the EASM independently from ESNO. Too weak rainfall variability and northward shift of the dipole rainfall pattern of EASM may be caused by the biases of WPSH in the models. The distribution of rainfall (shaded; units: mm day−1) and 850 hPa wind (vectors; units: m s−1) regressed onto the observed EASM index in (a) the observation, (b) MME and (c–f) each models.
  • Editor: Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
  • Idioma: Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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