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The behavior of the Brazilian federal domestic debt

Luporini, Viviane

Economia Aplicada; Vol. 6 Núm. 4 (2002); 714-733

Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP 2002-08-30

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  • Título:
    The behavior of the Brazilian federal domestic debt
  • Autor: Luporini, Viviane
  • Assuntos: Federal Domestic Debt; Fiscal Consolidation; Brazil
  • É parte de: Economia Aplicada; Vol. 6 Núm. 4 (2002); 714-733
  • Descrição: This paper analyses the sustainability of the Brazilian federal fiscal policy by examining the responses of the government budget surplus to variations of the debt-GDP ratio. The approach to assess sustainability, proposed by Bohn (1998), circumvents the problems present in traditional sustainability tests, such as unit roots and cointegration. In particular, the regressions proposed do not require restrictive assumptions about real interest rates, the structure of the government debt or the agents' behavior towards risk. Using annual data from 1966 to 2000, the results have indicated that the government surplus has not systematically responded to changes in the debt-income level previously observed, indicating that the fiscal policy cannot be considered sustainable during the period analyzed. Moreover, it is shown thatthe debt-GDPratio does not exhibit a meanreverting tendency even when one controls for cyclical variations in income and government expenditures, further indicating a non-sustainable path for the fiscal policy.
  • Títulos relacionados: https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/220045/200866
  • Editor: Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP
  • Data de criação/publicação: 2002-08-30
  • Formato: Adobe PDF
  • Idioma: Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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